129809336020836250_981Bank of China International Finance Research Institute recently published research report (hereinafter referred to as "research report"), the current risk point in China's economic operation focused on four main areas, one is overcapacity problems; the second is foreign exchange problems; three credit growth issue, and the adjustment problems of real estate. Refers to the excess investment in fixed capital, labour, raw materials and other elements inBest under certain level of output, more than the actual yield of a State determined by market demand. The past ten years, investment in stimulating economic growth in the period of high growth in China at the same time, enables the rapid expansion of production capacity, storing up problems for later the excess. Now, the hidden danger is gradually emerging, particularly in a number of industrial products prices, benefit substantially in a landslide.Since last year, along with the economic downturn, demand, some sharp price declines, steel, cement, iron ore and coal are most typical. Studies show that, 2011 Chinese domestic demand for crude steel is approximately 660 million tons, while domestic crude steel production capacity estimated at 770 million tons, excess capacity leading to falling prices of iron ore and steel, industrial efficiencyDeclining profits of industrial enterprises by the beginning of 2011 fell all the way to growth of around 35% per cent in December, stripping out of monopoly industry of huge profits, profit growth is even slower in other industries, or even negative growth in some industries. Kirk Wong, head of research, from the perspective of micro-level, excess production capacity will lead directly to the enterprise operation and capacity underutilization, caused byWaste of economic resources, reducing the efficiency of enterprise production and management. From a macro point of view, overcapacity in many industries, will result in overall price levels decreased markedly, and formed a strong deflationary pressure will enable enterprises to investment and consumption are expected to decline, growing downward pressure on economic growth, and will probably cause an increase in non-performing assets, financial risk. Central Bank recently announcedData show that in January this year added $ 140.9 billion of foreign exchange in China, but February incremental was once again dropped to $ 25.1 billion
TERA Power Leveling, on 2012 year scale of foreign exchange in the market growth is concerned. Generally expect, scale at about $ 2 trillion of Foreign Exchange accounts for growth this year, significantly lower than the past few years the average annual level of $ 3 trillion. In the 4th quarter of last year, foreign exchangeAppears to have negative growth. Kirk Wong considers foreign exchange and capital projects are not completely open and close to the exchange rate mechanism. On one hand, many years of trade and FDI (foreign direct investment) double surplus resulting foreign exchange inflows continued to increase, enterprises continue to sell foreign currency to commercial banks in exchange for currency, commercial banks also had to sell large amounts of foreign exchange to the people's BankThe other hand, has since 1994 currency reform, in China always adhere to the principle of appreciation of the exchange rate basically stable without progressive. However, the massive surpluses lead to market to the appreciation of the Renminbi has been expected, international capital pouring into the domestic market.
To maintain the basic stability of the exchange rate, the Central Bank had to buy foreign exchange hedging. Exchange rate in China in 2003Year began to rise quickly
wow cd-key, to maintain until the 2009 30% of the high growth. As of 2011, the scale of China's foreign exchange accounted for up to 25 trillion yuan, grew by nearly 17 times than they were 10 years ago. Research report pointed out that, in the short term, under the influence of the European debt crisis, especially developed countries, economic growth is not optimistic about the future of the global economy. February trade deficit of up to 315Billions of dollars, is the largest trade deficit of 4 times. In the long run, Japan and the United Kingdom and Germany, exports of history shows that export share of total global GDP of a country is difficult to exceed 3%, share of the global trade is difficult to exceed 10%. About China's export share of total global GDP reached 2.8%, per cent of global exports close to 10%, has hit the ceiling, Which means that the basis of appreciation has been changed. Last quarter of 2012, governed by the credit crunch and economic growth, purchase policies and other factors, "qi fell". Specifically, in January-February this year, from a sales point of view, national sales 70.04 million square meters, down 14%, sales of commercial housing 414.5 billionYuan, down 20.9% in 2011, representing a cumulative growth fell and 18.9%, the cumulative growth even more in 2009 for the first time since the "positive" to "negative". In February, a link and an increase of house prices decline of cities are significantly increased. However, in February, late start, Under the rigid role factors such as demand is the release of, a number of urban real estate market "price fall" warmed up the symptoms. According to the China index Academy, cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing residential business area of rebound, but prices continued to drop. This regulation in line with the Government's expectations, also showed that the real estate market is entering a reasonAdjustment phase. From the sources, 2012 1 February, real estate financing to $ 1.4 trillion, the cumulative growth of 16.2% compared in 2011, representing fell 0.1%. Domestic loans to $ 311.6 billion, Trojan up 16.3%, increase of 8.6% per cent compared with last year, personal mortgage loan of 1296Billion, an increase of 1.2%. Research report believes that small increase in domestic housing mortgage loans and personal loans, on the one hand, benefited from financial institutions are increasing their investments in affordable housing and housing needs of credit
Diablo 3 gold, real estate Enterprise Fund chain tension had eased, while supporting the real estate market has also warmed up, making personal housing mortgage loanThe growth. From the perspective of real estate investments, 2012 1 real estate investment 543.1 billion yuan in February, the cumulative growth of 27.8% in 2011, representing a cumulative growth fell by only 0.1% per cent, down speed is less than-expected investment growth, the reason for this is: first, real estate financing, particularly the growth of domestic loans remained good, leading companiesInvestment in money difficulties and greatly compressed and, secondly, of subsidized housing investments on merchandise housing investment alternative is emerging, leading to still maintain a relatively rapid growth rate for real estate investment. Kirk Wong said while the real estate market has entered a "price drop" benign adjustment and self healing phase, however, the current real estate market also saw a number of new issues, such as the first Resident GeneralSome impact housing demand. At the same time, prices are still far exceed residents ' ability to pay, housing supply and demand remains prominent structural contradictions, rise in prices caused by irrational system still does not address. Research report believes that last quarter of 2012, as the "rigid demands" of further releases, moderate for the time being, the financial support of the policy role to strengthen role of multiple factors such as,Real estate market will be "snap fall" stage into "price delay" or "prices slightly up" stage, the real estate market will further warmed up. First, financial tensions eased, prompting real estate supply and demand will be enlarged and, second, since the beginning of February 2012, financial institutions increased the demand of buyers credit support, mainly reflected in theFirst set of mortgage lending rate was high, so the "rigid demands" will further release, real estate turnover will be magnified in addition, due to the volume of the amplifier is bound to push prices up, but due to the rigid demand and volume of turnover comes mainly from not increasing significantly, so prices could rise only slightly. Set of inventory after the release of the 3rd quarter, willEnter "align falling" downward path which means that 2012 will remain volatile downward trend. In addition, research report pointed out that the current amount of credit caused by low lower industrial production and fixed investment, macroeconomic slowdown risks increase. For stable growth, the need for structural adjustment of the monetary policy significantly increases. (Editors: Huo Yuqian)
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