the current laborMarket conditions are in short supply

Nomura, Chief China Economist Zhang Zhiwei China Securities Journal reporter recently said in an interview, exacerbate the risk of China's economy is, GDP growth rates of less than 8% per cent in the first quarter of next year risks being increased. Zhang Zhiwei believes that if the economy is clearly downward, monetary policy is eased, it is expected will be gradually relaxed, and effects on the economyA delay. 　　The China Securities journal: HSBC's sharp drop in the November PMI initial value released this week, does this mean that the turning point in the economy of China? Zhang Zhiwei: China's economy is to exacerbate this risk, economic growth is likely in the fourth quarter of this year and a significant decline in the first quarter of next year. Latest HSBC PMI initial weakness, further strongOf the idea. This judgement is mainly based on three reasons. First, the obvious signs of weakening in the real estate market, recent market leading indicators, including home sales, new construction area and house prices are falling sharply, while the indicators used to accurately predict the goods marked decline in residential investment. Therefore we expect in coming quarters living housesField weakening, investment growth rate of decline may accelerate. Second, the next year affordable housing efforts to support new investment by the two quarter will be weak. Mainly under the influence of the following two reasons, first, the Government 10 million units of affordable housing plan for 2011 building was completed in October, the next two months will not have many new construction projects. Second is affected by severe winter weatherAnd the cash-strapped local governments impact 2012 started in an area is likely to slow growth in the first quarter. We believe that the real estate market after some time ago the confrontation after a stalemate, is entering a downward cycle for the next 6 months or so markets will continue to be downward. That will give concrete, steel and other associated industry offers significant negative impact to drag down overall industrial production, A similar situation in July 2008 has been found. Third, because of the weakness in external demand, export growth will slow. Various leading indicators showed a significant drop in exports in the near future, heralding the next few quarters export growth will decline. 　　It will make slower real estate investment for this year's four quarters and industrial production in the first quarter of next year. Overall, next yearFirst quarter GDP growth per cent below the risk of 8% is increasing, but two or three quarter macroeconomic trends next year will gradually improve, mainly due to starting from the second quarter of next year, affordable housing investments will speed increased again. 2012 investment in affordable housing's contribution to the GDP growth rate is expected to reach 0.9%, but larger construction schedule by quarter may be ups and downs. In addition, macroChanging view of economic policy during the lagged effect of economic support to the second quarter of next year even reflected in the second half. 　　The China Securities journal: If a marked slowdown in economic growth within the next six months and below 8%, whether the Government would loosen policy to stop the economic downturn? Zhang Zhiwei: housing policy, the Government clear direction, that is, for some time to come continue toPolicy tightening. 　　This reinforces our judgment, namely, real estate will continue to maintain the downward trend. 　　Monetary policy if the economy really showed a significant downward, policies will be eased, but will only be gradually relaxed, and on the economic impact of a delay. Compared to 2008, the current economic situation has seen tremendous changes. First of all diablo 3 power leveling, the current laborMarket conditions are in short supply, and after the outbreak of the financial crisis have become different status of China's 20 million people lost their jobs. Second, the current inflationary pressures are greater, and the problem of structural inflation is shown diablo 3 power leveling, this limits the fiscal expansion space. Third, the stimulus measures on debt limits the ability of Government to loosen policy. Rapid expansion of credit in the past three years, has beenRaises concerns about banks ' balance sheets may suffer losses, substantial further relaxation will only make the banking sector and the growing problem of local government. IV, starting from the second quarter of next year the construction of affordable housing will speed increased again, this helps support economic growth for the year 2012. This was actually a kind of stimulus, just time-point could have an impact on the economy later. Due toThis, we believe that policy makers may be less willing to significantly loosen policy. 　　We believe that the policy of relaxation rate in the first quarter of next year will be bigger, major areas of relaxed reserve requirements and new loans in Yuan, while the benchmark interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. China Securities journal: the economy faces downside risks and policy adjustments expected under the background of, what the stock market would havePerformance? Zhang Zhiwei: macro-economic short-term trend downward, bad news will continue to come out. Now the market is the main risk of policy adjustments, is substantially relax quickly or slowly relaxed slightly is uncertain. If the policy quickly relaxed substantially, for short-term market was aided, long is bad. Experience can be compared to the past three years, on the marketAfter the rising, we will begin to worry about the future long-term risks. If it is a slow, relaxed slightly, for short-term market is not good.