again falling to below the dry line

1th page: the market is in the winter dark before dawn stock market can go far? 2nd page: seven emerging strategic industries to usher in greater development opportunities page 3rd seven emerging strategic industries to usher in greater development opportunities page 4th: multiple factors suppressing a shares appear reversed and Editor's Note: this week, markets continuing inertia down, but in peripheral markets sad hung overUnder the wild star wars the old republic power leveling, the a-share's decline has narrowed significantly, huzhi the week fell by only 1.5% turnover shrank to 274.9 billion, fell by 36.7%. Policy in the near future under the warm wind blows, shares quickly fell some unexpected, as a barometer for the economy, perhaps by declining reflecting domestic economic growth is already a turning point, greatly increased risk of a hard landing.This week's HSBC November PMI value from fell to 48 per cent in October, hit a 32-month low of information supporting the downside risks to economic growth has been in China. "Growth and structure", I believe that remains the central economic work Conference, focusing on the content of the upcoming 2012, in hundreds of thousands of funding and a range of industrial policy in promoting escortUnder escort, had identified seven major emerging strategic industries will usher in a period of rapid development. ����Policy: the policy warmed up in the stock market can go far in winter? ����Industry news: seven emerging strategic industries to usher in greater development opportunities for technology news: multiple factors suppressing a shares appear warmer reverses policy under the stock market can go far in winter? BeingWhen people expected shares risk of systemic lupus killed fell hard again now, short just 6 trading days on the huzhi is back again 2,400 points. Right now, the a-share live dramatic deterioration of the environment on the external front: Portugal sovereign credit ratings by Fitch the old republic power leveling, reduced the public debt contagion worries, Europe and all the major stock indexes this week could have plummeted; domestic: with the export and investmentDeclines in growth rates, the economic situation increasingly gloomy November HSBC PMI initial-only 48, again falling to below the dry line, and the highest in a 32-month low. Generally speaking, "the economy is in the real estate woes to a hard landing, still under policy tuning of a soft landing? "," Extent of the earnings downgrade "," impact of the European debt crisis "and other risksNot fully released, and policies to improve results of PK, mobility improvements will determine whether a-shares can stabilise above the 2,300-point. Internal and external difficulties actually warmer policy PK, recent policy level can be described as the a-share market is warm air blow frequency. Macro context, downward trend of inflation uncertainty, policy fine-tuning open, turning point is now policy, economic policyBalance began to "growth" is tilted; FR, Chairman of the SFC after he took office, first forcing bonus programme arrangements, especially at the time of IPO commitments is significant. Then launched six major initiatives to promote the stable and healthy development of capital markets, which dealt with to the higher earnings release, the delisting mechanism long-term constraints such as a-shares and healthy development of the core issues, such asFruit follow-up will further introduce rules, its effects than stock feat. Warm wind blowing with the policy, and fears in a down economy and the effects of European debt crisis intensified under the impact of a substantial reduction, in particular the European debt crisis deteriorating rapidly this week, Portugal's credit rating by Fitch, the Grand Duke down, Europe and the stock market plunging several days in a row, while the United States economy into a recessionThe trend, according to the United States the last 4 quarters of real GDP growth rate was 1.5%. ����Experience has shown that since 1948, this figure is lower than 2%, United States is in recession, a total of 11 times, without exception. At present, this wave of international capital markets tsunami has begun to affect the country. According to the October China's foreign exchange money occupation appearDecember 2007-present 3 years for the first time in a row, showed foreign capital outflow of Chinese trade surplus narrowed, exports under pressure. Before the Mainland austerity policy remains in force, housing led to cool investment growth, especially HSBC November PMI initial value plunged to 48 this week, hit a 32-month low of messages, indeed, have sparked a round of panicForeign investment banks issued "economic hard landing in China" increased risks of freedom, in time, everyone from policy transfer joy of relaxation to concerns over the economic downturn. ����Further study on the stock market success will depend on whether the economy can be achieved by the end of a soft landing. Qu Hongbin, Chief China Economist at HSBC thinks November Manufacturing PMI initial decline reflects the next monthIndustrial production growth is likely to slow further to 11%~12%. While new export orders is still flexible, but domestic demand cools, and weaker external demand began. Barclays Capital also believes that although this does not mean that China's industrial production in the coming months must be in a recession, but at least China economic downside risks were increasing. Chief China Economist at Nomura Securities Zhi ZhangWei even 2012 first-quarter GDP growth still to 8%! Chances of a hard landing low, credit to increase by more than the market consensus forecasts, the November official China PMI index to below 50 per cent to 49 per cent level. "China economic alerts, central banks have officially release not far away. "People in the industry expected, in the economic downturn,State of the European debt crisis will spread, the Chinese Government will once again face a "growth" challenge. Qu Hongbin, believed that the positive side is that as inflation falling faster than expected, will be reserved for the Government unveils a selective easing of more space, that should gradually push China into a soft landing trajectory. This week, Zhejiang Provincial rural credit system allowed to redirect its institutions renminbi deposit preparationGold rate of 0.5% per cent, despite the Central Bank clarified that this is the recovery deposit rate is not reduced, but it's still being understood as the prelude of the Central Bank reduced reserve. In this regard, guotai Junan securities analysis, China's currency policy for multiple objectives such as growth, inflation and house prices. Four-quarter GDP is likely lower than 8.5%, the slowdown has become the mostBig risks, and in November will also fall in inflation to below 5%, in October the national average, it was the first y/y drop, this meant that monetary policy shift has become inevitable. First step is to monetary easing of monetary policy shift, marked by a 3 year Central ticket rates downward, from 1 year of central interest rate cut is confirmed, the future is likely to drop interest rate cuts. CurrencyPolicy shift is the second step of easy credit, lower interest rates to credit demand recovery, October credit per cent increase, or increase in bank credit lines. However, UBS Securities Chief Economist at UBS said that, as long as the international financial markets, or without a sudden collapse in export demand, China is likely to continue the current policy state of tune. The future, China mainly throughControl the money supply and credit lines to manage monetary policy, rather than adjusting interest rates. ����But if the depletion of foreign exchange inflows continue, the Central Bank may need to cut the deposit reserve ratio may even cut before the end of 2011. No matter how the Government will ease monetary policy, but policy certainly, the inflection point has been able to confirm that, taking into account the relationship between stock market and monetary policyOctober of persistent concern of lending growth. Review of end of 2008 economic recovery experience, you can find credit is the most important indicator of monetary, credit and even economic decision. For example, in November 2008 compared how credit increased, followed in March 2009 the economy begins to recover. Since the beginning of this year's economic growth rate continued to drop, the background is alsoDeclining loan growth. Jianyin investment analysis of the macroeconomic Division Li Chongbin, does not appear a hard landing in China, a-shares will not fall below 2,300 points. Credit October has begun per cent from increased estimated next December credit is expected to start up, because experience has shown that outflow of hot money tends to accompany back easing of monetary policy. September 2008 hotMoney to start continuous outflow, how increase occurred November credit per cent last May 2010 continuing outflow of hot money, appears in July increased by more than the same monetary easing and credit. ����So speculate that at end-December stock market building will be completed next year, is coming back, and GDP are generally lagged one quarter, it is estimated that GDP growth will be at the bottom of the second quarter of next year. In 20 years, Policies have been around the a-share market, even after the State has decided to reduce the impact of policy on stock market, policies are still is the most important factor in their market price, which is also based on the policy corner of, the a-share market this week could not have been at the periphery sequence, try to be brave in the stock market. Technically, the market early in the near collapse of the bottom is not observed, volumes have shrunk,Fluctuations become narrower, shenchengzhi early this week to its lowest point distance less than 2% at the bottom, and huzhi, a long-term increase lifeline (history and 998 connector at the end of) the important support. Next, before shenchengzhi will fall below the end of huzhi can be stopped falling above the long-term rise in Lifeline, were current investors need to pay close attention to.